Syria: the Libyan link

France's LeFigaro reported briefly today on Libyan troops helping out the Syrian Free Army against Assad's regime.

The report is very brief and does not shed more light on the reasons and implications of this. I will try here to do that.

It is interesting first to note that the links between Syria and Libya are old and complex. During the war between Kaddafi and Libya's NTC (rebels), Syria's Assad provided a major support to Kaddafi. Indeed before NATO's air blocade over Libya, it was Syrian pilots who bombed the civilians. They were more willing to do this than Kaddafi's unmotivated troops or his mercenaries (not very knowledgeable of airplane usage)

During Kaddafi's last days, he regularly provided messages to Syrian TV channels close to Assad's regime, and after his fall, the NTC was the first to officially recognize Syria's own opposition as the legitimate government.

The interesting part of LeFigaro's article is that the Libyan troops helping out Syria's rebels are Abdelhakim Belhadj's people. His implication is very telling:

Belhadj is an Islamist, previously jailed in Guantanamo, and trained in Afghanistan. During the Libyan uprising he led the unit that took over Tripoli. Belhadj was notoriously helped by British and French special troops, and financed by Qatar. Many assume he now works for the CIA. In the Libyan political structure he is the representative of the militant Islamists in the power structure. He was reportedly arrested recently by another Libyan group as he was traveling to Turkey with large cash amounts (source says: $600K)

Belhadj's involvement in Syria is therefore a strong indicator of:
1. US and Qatar's decision to beef up the military aspect of the uprising
2. The strong Turkish-Qatari coordination
 3. the increased involvement of Islamist troops and coordinators in Syria's armed rebellion.

Add to this the various reports of French secret service personnel training some of the Syrian rebels, and what you have is the recipe for a prolonged civil war.

The situation is very similar to Lebanon v.1975, many back then also believed that the war would end quickly....it took 30 years!

Syrian expat boom

There is a visible surge in the number of Syrian daily workers in Lebanon. Just walk around Beirut's streets and you can notice that the numbers have significantly increased.

This is probably one of the most "visible" impacts of economic & political problems Syria is facing. Its excess man-force is being sent to Lebanon. This can help Syria's Assad in two ways:

1. bring in much needed currency back to Syria (earn in Lebanon, send to Syria)

2. get rid of a large number of young males, that could eventually become protesters in Syria. Interestingly enough, it is easier for Syria's Assad to control this population in Lebanon than in Syria itself. All Syrians leaving Syria needed to register with the Moukhabarat (secret service), and Syria's Lebanese allies are powerful enough to "control" these migrant workers.

I discussed with a small group of these recent arrival workers this morning. While very vague (or rather citing all possible reasons) on the reasons for coming to Beirut, they clearly made me feel that they were strongly "encouraged" to do so...

Aoun and Syria: joker please!

If you follow the semantic change in Michel Aoun's stances in Syria in the last 2 weeks, you will realize there is an attempt to reposition his extreme pro-Assad position into that of a philosopher watching and saddened by the events.

Aoun seems to have understood now that whatever the outcome of the events in Syria, Assad is bound to come out at minima as weakened. In his own savvy knowledge of the way Lebanese Christians think, Aoun has understood that positioning himself as an advisor to Syrians "I understand your fears and please don't fight" can help him stop his dwindling Support amongst Christians.

Aoun is actually playing on:

1. Christians fears of what will come next after Assad

2. fear of a civil war (spill over) in Lebanon

3. Trying to portray himself as a knowledgable, experienced and responsible politician

...All while trying to hedge his bets: continue supporting Assad but send mix messages.

So expect in the next few weeks: press conferences supporting Assad and insulting others, but also media press releases advising peaceful solutions in Syria and hinting at the need for reforms.

Syria plans to launch a news TV channel

Al-Quds al-Arabi has learnt that a serious proposal has emerged in Syria about launching an official Syrian satellite news channel, which will be part of the radio and television corporation channels that are under the direct control of the leadership in Damascus.

If things go as planned without any media or political obstacles, the expected channel might be launched within one and a half to two years. It will constitute a Syrian political window on the world with a discourse meant to be different from that of other official Syrian media institutions.

A higher committee composed of public figures from the Syrian Information Ministry and the Radio and Television Corporation has been formed to lay down the broad lines and undertake a feasibility study of the planned channel.

Dr Mumtaz al-Shaykh, director-general of the Syrian Radio and Television Corporation, stressed to Al-Quds al-Arabi that the recently created news centre, which is part of "mablicon [name as transliterated]," is intended to be the basis of the news channel that Syria wants to establish. He added that 90 per cent of the technical requirements of the launching of this channel are secured, and what remains is just linking it to one of the existing satellites.

With regard to the human resources, Dr Al-Shaykh affirmed that the staff to operate this channel will be selected and trained before it is launched. It includes technicians, editors, broadcasters and correspondents. This will be done with the help of international institutions that have great expertise in satellite television training. He emphasized that it is hoped that this channel will compete with the most outstanding existing news channels.

If the project is completed and the channel is launched, experts expect the latter to play a major role in marketing the Syrian discourse worldwide. In this connection, Syria terribly lost the media war that erupted in the wake of the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri, and its information then seemed confused and weak in the face of the cruel attacks on the part of a range of information media supporting the 14 March team, as well as the Saudi and Egyptian government media.

This prompted Syria to review its calculations regarding the media, and to prepare adequate ground for an official information service that will be much stronger in the event of future confrontations that can happen at any time.

Al-Quds al-Arabi has learned that, before launching the satellite channel in question, and even before starting preparations for its launch, there was a conviction of the need for a large political margin to be made available in choosing the substance of the news, especially that concerning the domestic political situation. Also, the fact that there exist opinions that are different from ours should be accepted, and this should be reflected in the various newscasts of the channel in question. Moreover, there should not be any waiting for higher directives to come from here or there before broadcasting a report, and, similarly, assertions by the official news agency, SANA [Syrian Arab News Agency], should not be taken for granted.

Most importantly, it should be accepted that the channel's work and discourse might not be to the liking of all the decisionmaking partisan, political and security circles in Syria. Thus, the channel should be free from the need for a consensus and the approval of these circles.

According to information received by Al-Quds al-Arabi, the construction and operational cost of the channel in question could reach 1 billion Syrian lira (22m dollars). The Syrian leadership is prepared to pay this cost, and even more, if the channel fulfils all its objectives.

Quoting official circles, some make comments to the effect that the Syrian media discourse is not keeping abreast of the political and diplomatic moves of the Syrian leadership. They affirm that, while no one knows the essential reason for this situation, everybody knows its remote causes.

The Week in the press

*Tunisian pollster company : Sigma, published a survey on Tunisian TV watching during Ramadan (prime time)

Tunisian TV Channel 1 (Government TV): 46%
Hanibaal TV (Private TV): 22%
Tunisian TV Channel 2 (Government TV): 21%
Others (Arab channels): 11%

* Jordan Children channel launched its new website

*Syrian banned Al Hayat newspaper (Al Hayat is based in London, but is Saudi owned)

On Syria's Latest TV Channel

"New Syria TV" started broadcasting this week....
Owned by Abdel Halim Khaddam (former Syrian Vice President, now in exile in France) the channel will broadcast on European Hotbird (probably banned by Arabsat, of which Syria is a member, and NileSat, owned by Egyptian Government)

This is the second Syrian TV channel owned by opponant sto the regime:
ANN (Arab News Network) is owned by Syria's president's fallen out uncle (Rifaat Al Assad). ANN broadcasts from London

and now New SYria TV.

It is interesting to note that both channels are owned by people who at one time where very close to teh ruling Assad family.