Syrian expat boom

There is a visible surge in the number of Syrian daily workers in Lebanon. Just walk around Beirut's streets and you can notice that the numbers have significantly increased.

This is probably one of the most "visible" impacts of economic & political problems Syria is facing. Its excess man-force is being sent to Lebanon. This can help Syria's Assad in two ways:

1. bring in much needed currency back to Syria (earn in Lebanon, send to Syria)

2. get rid of a large number of young males, that could eventually become protesters in Syria. Interestingly enough, it is easier for Syria's Assad to control this population in Lebanon than in Syria itself. All Syrians leaving Syria needed to register with the Moukhabarat (secret service), and Syria's Lebanese allies are powerful enough to "control" these migrant workers.

I discussed with a small group of these recent arrival workers this morning. While very vague (or rather citing all possible reasons) on the reasons for coming to Beirut, they clearly made me feel that they were strongly "encouraged" to do so...

Communication vs Pragmatism

update: a few hours after publishing this post, the Mikati government with the tacit approval of Hezbollah has approved the financing of the STL.

...or why Hezbollah's self interest actually calls for financing the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) for Rafic Hariri's murder (Lebanon is due to pay its share of the financing of the tribunal. Prime Minister Mikati has said he would resign if it is not approved by the government)

Hezbollah is confronted today with the most basic of all political choices: prefer communications and the party's image or act pragmatically and prioritize the party's political interests.

The communication choice, would be to utterly reject the STL. This has been Hezbollah's stance since 2005: The tribunal has been portrayed by Hassan Nassrallah and every party member as a US and Israeli tool, and Nassrallah has openly said that he will never accept to finance it. Doing so now, might seem for Hezbollah's constituents and allies as a sign of weakness.

On the other hand, the pragmatic choice would be to go for the financing considering the alternatives the party has, and for the following reasons:
1. A strong Assad in Syria is a survival necessity for Hezbollah. Syria's own interests in Lebanon requires the prime minister to remain. In light of the Arab Leagues attacks on Syria, Assad needs a friendly Arab government, and this Lebanese government has proven to be very friendly with Assad's regime.
2. Financing the tribunal will provide PM Najib Mikati with a needed boost within his own Sunnite community. Both Assad and Hezbollah need to counter the influence of Saad Hariri within the Lebanese Sunnite community. Reinforcing Mikati can therefore only benefit Hezbollah on the short term.
3. A quick alternatives political analysis, shows that even if Lebanon does not finance the Tribunal, the Tribunal will probably keep going on. So what ever Hezbollah's moves are, the Tribunal will remain. Better therefore for the party to reinforce Assad and Mikati.
4. By financing the Tribunal, Hezbollah would have stripped the main communication argument March 14th has been using against the Government. M14 will find themselves in a difficult communications situation.
5. Hezbollah can barter this tacit approval of the financing with a major political gain for the party or its allies (like Aoun): revive the shouhoud el zour case, finance Aoun's pet projects etc...Thus ultimately benefiting with the public opinion.

Hezbollah's history has shown that being politically pragmatic has always been a key feature of their policy. Furthermore, considering 1. the communications strength the party has, and 2. the utter trust the Shiite community has in the party, Hezbollah can easily spin this choice.

The real challenge is going to be with the anti-Hezbollah camp. How to re-mobilize the street if the STL issue is "deflated". Time for an urgent meeting between Hariri, Geagea and Gemayel!

STL & why it is still relevant

Just read Elias Muhanna (aka Qifa Nabki)'s feature in the NY Times  "Just another day in Lebanon".

Quite interesting, Elias makes a point that Lebanon's future is at best uncertain, and wonders about the future of the STL (Special Tribunal for Lebanon)

Though I agree with him, I wonder why the pessimistic tone around the STL's role and influence. I think it is playing a much more important role in Lebanon's current political crisis than it shows:

1. It is still used as a rallying cause for various M14 leaders
2. It is used by Walid Jumblatt as a justification for his political re positioning (caused by Syria's troubles)
3. It is (if well utilized) a negotiation tool in the post Assad redrawing of Lebanon's influences
4. On the long term it acts as a continuous looming threat over Hezbollah and Syria's Assad (never know when it can be fully utilized)
5. When there is nothing else to discuss, it serves as a back up for journalists!

My main problem with the STL is the "communications obsessed" way Mustakbal leaders use it. They are the main reason behind diluting its perceived importance among the public opinion. Overuse it, you'll kill it.

Part of the communication's success of the STL (in my opinion) is to keep a shroud of mystery around it. Hezbollah works hard to destroy that...By over communicating, Mustakbal leadersare doing a better job!

is MTV back ?

Al Akhbar newspaper reported today that MTV (Murr TV, not Music TV) once Lebanon's most hype TV channel, might start broadcasting again...

MTV's story in a glance

Founded by Lebanese politician Gabriel El Murr, and headed by son Michel El Murr, MTV was created to offer a "free alternative" in a very controlled Lebanese media scene (Syria was occupying Lebanon in 2000)

MTV opposed the Syrian occupation of Lebanon, and was a mouthpiece for Gabriel El Murr's political ambitions (Mr. Murr was a staunch anti-Syrian politician)

On September 2nd, 2002, the Syrians decided to close the channel (by force)
MTV tried to get back on air in September 2006 (after Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon in 2005), but lack of sufficient funds (after the 2006 summer war) prevented its reopening.


Future Prospects

MTV is reopening in order to offer anti Syrian Christians a media outlet (their main competitor - Gnl Michel Aoun - owns Orange TV) for the upcoming 2009 legislative elections.
Problem: Murr's main financial backer - Prince Walid Ben Talal- is already the "real" owner of Lebanon's leading Tv channel LBC

and LBC is itself engaged in a lawsuit againt the main anti-Syrian Christian party: the Lebanese Forces...(if you couldn't follow: it's a mess!!!)

What is sure is that the Lebanese advertising market cannot sustain more TV channels (7, for a market that can probably support only 2 channels) MTV will therefore need political/financial backers...which means; you can kiss independence goodbye!

BUT, the Murr family is also the owner of Studiovision...one of the Arab world's largest production facility. The family knows the media business very well, and have proven before that they can attract very creative talent. Will MTV become another OTV ? (much expected, little delivered...) or a new LBC (shake a sleepy market)

to be continued...

In the press today

As Safir reported that a new satellite channel that started broadcasting on Arabsat a couple of days ago (YARA) is probably owned by the Lebanese Forces party* (I will verify the info)

Al Akhbar ran on page 5 a picture of a "Fath El Islam" militant captured by the Lebanese Army. The face of the militant is blurred.....On page 1 of the newspaper, the same picture, but without the blurring!

Saudi publications are talking a lot about MBC's new Turkish series...(this is the second such series MBC broadcasts, dubbed in Arabic) I've watched a couple of episodes from the first one...the girls are hot, the stories are good. this is TeleNovelas of the Middle East


*In 1985, the Lebanese Forces founded the Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation (LBC). The party ran the channel from 1985 till 1994 (when Samir Geagea, head of the party was imprisoned) The channel is now owned by Saudi Walid Ben Talal. The Lebanese Forces sued LBC's current owners.

On Lebanon's Orange TV (OTV)

I am always amazed at how most Lebanese channels have absolutely no sense of any political neutrality. One good example is Lebanon's newest channel : Orange TV (OTV)*
When it started broadcasting 1 year ago, the channel's GM** promised an "objective channel, opened to all", and his news director went as far as to promise "the most objective channel in the universe!"
Result: 75%**** of its guests are from the FPM's allies (March 8th alliance) and more than 30% are leaders from the FPM!!

OTV really missed an opportunity to truly bring something different to Lebanon's news environment.


*Orange TV is the newest Lebanese TV channel (1 year old) The channel is unofficially owned by the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) led by Gnl Michel Aoun, officially it is owned by 1000s of individual shareholders
**Roy El Hachem, son in law of Michel Aoun
***Jean Aziz
****Comtrax Solutions Data April 2008