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Saturday, November 26, 2011

Aoun and Syria: joker please!

If you follow the semantic change in Michel Aoun's stances in Syria in the last 2 weeks, you will realize there is an attempt to reposition his extreme pro-Assad position into that of a philosopher watching and saddened by the events.

Aoun seems to have understood now that whatever the outcome of the events in Syria, Assad is bound to come out at minima as weakened. In his own savvy knowledge of the way Lebanese Christians think, Aoun has understood that positioning himself as an advisor to Syrians "I understand your fears and please don't fight" can help him stop his dwindling Support amongst Christians.

Aoun is actually playing on:

1. Christians fears of what will come next after Assad

2. fear of a civil war (spill over) in Lebanon

3. Trying to portray himself as a knowledgable, experienced and responsible politician

...All while trying to hedge his bets: continue supporting Assad but send mix messages.

So expect in the next few weeks: press conferences supporting Assad and insulting others, but also media press releases advising peaceful solutions in Syria and hinting at the need for reforms.

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